RBC says these 6 reasons explain why a recession will strike in the first half of 2024
- BUSINESS INSIDER
- Dec 28, 2023
- 1 min read
1. The Fed's rate hikes have gone high enough to trigger a downturn. The current policy is "deeply in restrictive territory," and that stance may no longer be appropriate if the economy continues to slow or inflation continues to cool.
2. Souring economic data suggests further weakness ahead.
3. The firm's recession scorecard is flashing warning signals. For example, the 2-year and 10-year curves are inverted, as well as the 3-month and 10-year curves — both pointing to a recession. The scorecard also shows financial conditions and lending standards have tightened.
4. RBC's business-cycle model indicates the economy is vulnerable to a downturn, as it's currently late in the cycle.
5. the economy is operating beyond a sustainable level, meaning that a period of sub-par activity is needed to cool things down.
6. central banks around the world are intent on cooling inflation to pre-pandemic levels, and they will likely have to produce a period of economic weakness to curb wage growth and pricing power.
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